[CTPP] Request for Copy of Demographic Analysis distributed at Modesto Modelers Mtg.

[Robert Ball]

Hi Chuck - Thanks again for coming to the Valley Modelers meeting in Modesto last month.  I have misplaced my copy of the demographic handout you distributed and wondered if you could send me a digital version?

If you get a chance, I was wondering if you could provide some feedback on the attached spreadsheet analysis of SB375 Targets Methods for the Big 5 regions.  It is a rough analysis of EMFAC 2007 defaults prepared by Joe O'Bannon of Michael Brandman Assoc (see attached .pdf).  I added a breakout by statewide percentages and by per capita for a variety of measures to compare potential SB375 target methods.

The data has some characteristics that surprised me.  The Bay Area and San Diego have the highest percapita VMT and CO2 while the SJValley and SCAG have the lowest.  It looks like Percapita Vehicle Population is considerably higher in the coastal areas than the interior of the state.  Probably a function of income.  The result is that EMFAC defaults are predicting higher CO2 percapita in the regions with the best transit systems in the state.  The Valley and SCAG percapita CO2 drops between 2008 and 2020 probably because of high population growth.

Kern COG is putting this analysis together to try to come up with a recommendation for an SB375 target methodology.  I would like to know if your regional demographic analysis validates or contradicts some of these numbers.  

I am currently leaning toward recommending a simple CO2 budget for 2020 similar in look to those for federal criteria pollutants.  I am also worried that the percapita rate may be difficult to show any change because the numbers are relatively small.  This is a very complicated spreadsheet analysis to say that simple may be best.  

>>> "Chuck Purvis" <CPurvis at mtc.ca.gov> 10/14/2008 10:11 AM >>>
Hello CTPPers:

The detailed 2007 American Community Survey data for journey-to-work
and household characteristics was released by the Census Bureau on
September 23, 2008. We completed our first report on the ACS 2007 for
our region, on October 2nd. The 30 page report is here:

http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/datamart/census/ 

The most interesting finding is a statistically significant (95% CL)
increase in transit commuting, 2006 to 2007, from 315,000 to 336,000.
The increase in our regional share of transit commuters (9.5 to 10.0
percent), was not a statistically significant increase (95% CL) (though
it was significant at a 90% CL).

Commute times are stable, at about 27 minutes per one-way commute.

Intra-county commute shares (% living and working in same county) has
remained stable between 2000 and 2007, at about 72 percent intra-county
commute.

We also produce tables on housing affordability, poverty, race, and
household vehicle availability, since those are topics of interest to us
and our policy board.

Chuck Purvis, MTC

**************************************************************
Charles L. Purvis, AICP
Principal Transportation Planner/Analyst
Metropolitan Transportation Commission
101 Eighth Street
Oakland, CA 94607-4700
(510) 817-5755 (office)
(510) 817-7848 (fax)
cpurvis at mtc.ca.gov (e-mail)
www: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/ 
**************************************************************
_______________________________________________
ctpp-news mailing list
ctpp-news at chrispy.net 
http://www.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news

-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Draft Targets - SJV Scenario.xls
Type: application/vnd.ms-excel
Size: 72704 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://www.chrispy.net/pipermail/ctpp-news/attachments/20090413/86aea0a0/DraftTargets-SJVScenario-0001.xls
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: MBA SB375 GHG Estimate (1-5-09).pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 51576 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://www.chrispy.net/pipermail/ctpp-news/attachments/20090413/86aea0a0/MBASB375GHGEstimate1-5-09-0001.pdf